Well, at least my Colorado score prediction was close (1pt. off). The Oregon score however was a different story. 70pts??? I know it was Colorado but 70pts. against a conference opponent makes the Ducks kind of a big deal….except in the BCS computer rankings. Since there isn’t much to say about the Oregon-Colorado game, we’re moving on. Sure, several Ducks (Kenjon Barner, DAT and Brian Bennett) had a great game, but it’s time to get serious about what lies ahead. The crazy BCS chaos has begun.
Why the Ducks deserve to be #2 in the BCS.
1. The Ducks have completely dismantled their opponents (57-34, 42-25, 63-14, 49-0,51-26, 52-21, 43-21, 70-14), and did so while playing their 2nd, 3rd and 4th string after the first half during most games. Not to mention their starting QB, Marcus Mariota is a freshman!! Just Sayin’.
Why the Ducks won’t be 2 in the BCS (this week).
1. The BCS computers don’t factor in the score (margin of victory). They determine the quality of a win by how high an opponent is ranked in the BCS rankings. So, the amount of points the Ducks win by doesn’t mean much to the computers.(They also don’t care about Mariota being a freshman by the way.)
2. Currently, there are four unbeaten teams in the BCS- Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame. Alabama already gets big points for winning the 2012 National Title. Kansas State and Notre Dame are getting big points for recently beating top 10 teams. The only thing saving the Ducks is the human polls, which do factor in “HOW” Oregon is winning-but that is only once piece of the pie.
3. The PAC-12 teams are beating up on each other. This doesn’t help Oregon’s case with the BCS. Yesterday was disastrous for Oregon. In order for the Ducks to get some BCS love, they need to beat top teams. Before yesterday, USC, Oregon State and Stanford had the opportunity to help a Duck out. Stanford sort of did it’s part by winning yesterday, but USC and OSU both fell, making the Ducks’ “strength of schedule” weaker.
So what now?
1. The Ducks have to win out.
2. USC and OSU have to win their remaining games, with the exception of OREGON, DUH! OSU and USC don’t play each other, Stanford already beat USC but still needs to play OSU. Basically it’s a big mess!! I think USC and OSU have the best chance to rank higher in the polls, so the Ducks need to do what they do best. Keep winning.
3.The Ducks need Notre Dame and/or Alabama to lose a game. Kansas State doesn’t have a strong schedule ahead, so if the Ducks win out, they can pass up K-State. But Notre Dame has a strong schedule as does Alabama, so one of them needs to fall. There is no certainty that Notre Dame will pass Oregon in the BCS this week, but I do believe it will happen given their big win yesterday, and because well…they are Notre Dame. (annoying, I know.)
My prediction: Ducks will beat USC, Stanford, Cal and OSU. Stanford will beat OSU, USC will beat Notre Dame. Kansas State will potentially play two top 25 teams over the the rest of season regular season, #24 Oklahoma State and #23 Texas. If the Ducks win out as predicted and USC beats Stanford, their SOS, strength of schedule should push out Kansas State since they beat #22 Arizona and #23 Washington, 49-0 and 52-21. Alabama vs. Oregon BCS Championship.
The Good news.
1. With USC and OSU’s loss yesterday, the PAC 12 Championship will very likely be played at Autzen with either the Ducks vs. USC or the Ducks vs. UCLA- unless the Ducks lose a game or two which isn’t likely at this point.
2. If the Ducks don’t go to the Natty, they will almost certainly be heading to the Rose Bowl- not a bad consolation prize. Hey! I’m trying here.
As a final note, I’m getting lots of reports of ladies flipping through several games on saturday, yelling at the TV, and sporting their gridirongirl shirts out and about! All of this makes me so very proud. Keep up the good work! and oh…Go Ducks!